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	<title>Nir and Far</title>
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	<link>http://www.nirandfar.com</link>
	<description>A blog about behavior engineering</description>
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		<title>Think You Like What You Like? Think Again</title>
		<link>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/05/think-you-like-what-you-like-think-again.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/05/think-you-like-what-you-like-think-again.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 May 2013 15:56:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nir Eyal</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Users]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Associations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Habits]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nirandfar.com/?p=958</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A funny thing happens when you lie to people: they tend to believe. Why shouldn’t they? They lie to themselves all the time. Our minds are wired to respond in predictable ways&#8211;among them is perceiving the world the way we want to see it, not necessarily the way it is. Perhaps no other phenomenon demonstrates ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p dir="ltr"><a href="http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/05/958.html"><img class="wp-image-960 alignleft" alt="Screen Shot 2013-05-16 at 1.44.38 PM" src="http://www.nirandfar.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Screen-Shot-2013-05-16-at-1.44.38-PM-300x268.png" width="300" height="268" /></a><span style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">A funny thing happens when you lie to people: they tend to believe. Why shouldn’t they? They lie to themselves all the time. Our minds are wired to respond in predictable ways&#8211;among them is perceiving the world the way we want to see it, not necessarily the way it is.</span></p>
<p dir="ltr">Perhaps no other phenomenon demonstrates our brain’s ability to make believe better than the placebo effect. Long known for its ability to improve a patient’s health, the practice of giving people an inert treatment they believe will make them better has been proven to be highly effective. In fact, in <a href="http://harvardmagazine.com/2013/01/the-placebo-phenomenon#.UNaOq_cKz_g.email" target="_blank">recent studies</a>, researchers have found the placebo effect may be much more potent than previously thought. So strong is the expectation that a pill will provide relief, that even patients who are told beforehand that the medication is a placebo and has no medicinal properties, still show significant signs of improvement. When it comes to fooling ourselves, the brain can’t help itself.</p>
<p dir="ltr">How a sugar pill could be as effective as an FDA-approved drug, backed by millions of dollars in research, is a central mystery of the placebo effect. But the brain’s predilection to fool itself is not only evident in the medical field. The cognitive trick is a central trait of how the products we use every day become part of our lives.</p>
<h3>Making Connections</h3>
<p dir="ltr">As I discussed in a <a href="http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/05/temptation.html" target="_blank">previous post</a>, products alleviate pain. But finding the pain is only part of the challenge. Once the source of temptation is found, be it hunger, fear, boredom, or any number of other triggers, a connection must be formed in the customer’s mind between the craving and the company’s offering.</p>
<p dir="ltr">An association is a memory that informs the way the world appears. If a company can form a connection between the trigger and its product, it can create a habit. Associations crowd out rational thought, enabling the “doing without thinking” characteristic of habits. But are associations and the memories they are based on really powerful enough to prevent us from thinking?</p>
<p dir="ltr">Consider the image to the right.<img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-959" alt="Screen Shot 2013-05-08 at 10.28.24 PM" src="http://www.nirandfar.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Screen-Shot-2013-05-08-at-10.28.24-PM-271x300.png" width="271" height="300" /></p>
<p dir="ltr">Take a guess at which surface is darker, the top square or the bottom? Assuming you’ve seen any number of similar optical illusions, you likely anticipate that there is a trick, and you’d be right. With your finger, cover up the line that separates the two squares. Doing so reveals the two squares are the exact same color. Why does this happen?</p>
<p dir="ltr">The answer is your brain has learned an indelible association, that surfaces on top should be lighter than shaded surfaces below. Your brain can’t register this image any other way unless you stop seeing the line in the middle which, when removed makes the two squares look like a solid object, not two stacked squares.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Associations are powerful and long lasting, indicating that they might have served an important evolutionary purpose. One hypothesis is that these associations help us make faster decisions my jumping to conclusions we’ve seen play out before. These associations are critical to what makes brands valuable and how we make automatic decisions about what we buy.</p>
<h3>Creating Preference</h3>
<p dir="ltr">Consider the famous Pepsi Challenge, which researchers have recreated in the lab on several occasions. Studies reveal that when people are asked to do a blind taste test of Coke versus Pepsi they <a href="http://www.librimedia.com/website/content/research/papers/neural_correlates_of_behavioral_preference_for_culturally_familiar_drinks.pdf" target="_blank">split equally</a>, showing little measurable preference. However, if people are asked to evaluate the drinks <a href="http://www.freepatentsonline.com/article/North-American-Journal-Psychology/256864601.html" target="_blank">knowing the brand</a> name, they disproportionately prefer Coke.</p>
<p dir="ltr">But here’s where the research gets interesting. When <a href="http://www.librimedia.com/website/content/research/papers/neural_correlates_of_behavioral_preference_for_culturally_familiar_drinks.pdf" target="_blank">a study</a> compared preference for Coke to an unidentified cola, Coke was overwhelmingly chosen. However, unbeknownst to the taster, sometimes the other cola was not just some drink, it too was Coke. Despite tasting two identical drinks, the Coke brand affected the flavor of the sample. MRI scans of the testers brains confirmed they had actually experienced the two drinks differently.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Similar effects have been observed with other factors, which should not objectively affect taste. For example, wine you believe <a href="http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/2008/01/15/expensive-wine-tastes-better/" target="_blank">is expensive</a> really does taste better. After all, isn’t expensive wine supposed to taste better? It better if you just shelled out an ungodly sum on a bottle. Here again, the brain’s ability to perceive the world the way it expects it to be kicks into high gear.</p>
<p>Just as the expectation of a placebo’s effect informs how we perceive physical symptoms, associations create connections between things, which may or may not be related. Marketers create these associations to ensure consumers choose their products out of habit, as well as enjoy them more once they do.</p>
<p><em>Image credit: <a href="http://tywkiwdbi.blogspot.com/2011/10/shades-of-gray-optical-illusion.html" target="_blank">tywkiwdbi</a> and <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/47691521@N07/5187627879/" target="_blank">opensourceway</a></em></p>
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		<item>
		<title>Temptation</title>
		<link>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/05/temptation.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/05/temptation.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 May 2013 16:42:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nir Eyal</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Users]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Behavior design]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Behavior engineering]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manipulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[reinforcement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Temptation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nirandfar.com/?p=954</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How do products tempt us? What makes them so alluring? It is easy to assume we crave delicious food or impulsively check email because we find pleasure in the activity. But pleasure is just half the story. Temptation is more than just the promise of reward. Recent advances in neuroscience allow us to peer into ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/05/temptation.html"><img class="alignright  wp-image-955" alt="Temptation" src="http://www.nirandfar.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/8219630837_a3fc4f8d89-300x199.jpg" width="300" height="199" /></a>How do products tempt us? What makes them so alluring? It is easy to assume we crave delicious food or impulsively check email because we find pleasure in the activity. But pleasure is just half the story.</p>
<p>Temptation is more than just the promise of reward. Recent advances in neuroscience allow us to peer into the brain, providing a greater understanding of what makes us want.</p>
<p>In 2011, Sriram Chellappan, an assistant professor of computer science at Missouri University of Science and Technology, gained unheard of access to sensitive information about the way undergraduates were using the Internet. <a href="http://web.mst.edu/~chellaps/papers/12_tech-soc_kcmwl.pdf" target="_blank">His study</a> tracked students on campus as they browsed the web. Chellappan was looking for patterns, which not only revealed what students were doing online, but provided clues about who they were.</p>
<p>“We believe that your pattern of Internet use says something about you,&#8221; Chellappan <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/17/opinion/sunday/how-depressed-people-use-the-internet.html?_r=0" target="_blank">wrote in</a> the New York Times. &#8220;Specifically, our research suggests it can offer clues to your mental well-being.” Chellappan concluded that there was, in fact, predictive power in the data. He found students with early signs of clinical depression used the Internet differently and he could identify students most likely to face mental health issues simply by looking at how they clicked.</p>
<p>“We identified several features of Internet usage that correlated with depression,” wrote Chellappan. “For example, participants with depressive symptoms tended to engage in very high e-mail usage.&#8221;</p>
<p>Chellappan developed the technology in hopes of creating an early-warning system to identify struggling students. But his study raised another question, why do people with depression check email more?</p>
<h3>Alleviating Pain</h3>
<p>The answer may provide clues about why all of us use the products and services we do in our everyday lives. Psychologists believe people with depression feel negative emotions, like anxiety, more frequently than other people do. There is evidence that the depressed students in Chellappan&#8217;s study were using the Internet more because they experience negative mental states more often. To try and feel better, they turned to the web to boost their mood.</p>
<p>Finding ways to make ourselves feel better is not something only depressives do. We all seek relief from feeling bad and the brain is primed to help us learn where we can find escape. Just as we might take a Tylenol to relieve a headache, we turn to products to relieve emotional pain. In fact, these two biological processes are so closely linked that taking a Tylenol has <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20548058" target="_blank">been shown</a> to ease both physical and emotional pain. The drug is effective in treating headache and heartache.</p>
<p>Having a pain to cure is a necessary prerequisite to using products. Recent neuroscience reveals the brain even adds pain to things that were previously pleasurable to push us to get what our bodies want. When temptation is activated in the brain, it induces a biological process that not only turns on the pleasure response, but also the body&#8217;s physiological stress response.</p>
<p>Consider a 2005 <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16038770" target="_blank">study</a> which looked at the physiological response of women exposed to images of chocolate. Researchers observed that the women experienced a subconscious reaction of alarm similar to seeing a threatening animal in the wild. The women, who had identified themselves as &#8220;chocolate cravers,&#8221; described feeling not only pleasure at the thought of consuming the chocolate, but also agitation, angst, and a feeling of a loss of control in the face of their desire. For these women&#8217;s brains, temptation was stressful.</p>
<p>Since the 1950s, researchers have explored how the brain&#8217;s reward system compels behavior. Our understanding of the complex circuitry shows that pleasure and pain work together. Once the brain learns something good is about to happen, it induces a craving we feel as stress. The fastest relief from this discomfort is to get what we want.</p>
<h3>Exaggeration and Fear</h3>
<p>Companies, of course, are masters of temptation. If marketing is <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marketing" target="_blank">defined</a> as, &#8220;the process of communicating the value of a product or service to customers,&#8221; then implicit in this practice is accentuating the positive aspects of what being sold. This technique is used not only in hawking goods, but is also found in nature. Animals have been tricking each other by accentuating desirable traits for millennia. The process is called &#8220;super-normal stimuli&#8221; and it is a key to <a href="http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/01/how-technology-is-like-bug-sex.html" target="_blank">enticing action</a> by creating the stress of desire.</p>
<p>Another way products induce intense desire is through a certain kind of fear, particularly our innate need to have as much as the next person. The phenomenon is exhibited with a simple experiment conducted by Frans de Waal, a primatologist at Emory University.</p>
<p>In the study, de Waal rewarded two capuchin monkeys with a cucumber when they completed a simple task, in this case, handing a rock to the researcher. When both monkeys were given the same reward, they completed the task as prescribed.</p>
<p>But when the researcher gave one monkey a grape while offering the other the standard cucumber, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meiU6TxysCg" target="_blank">the results</a> were very different. The stiffed monkey, who was perfectly content just seconds before with his cucumber, began shrieking, baring his teeth, thrashing in his cage, and pounding on the table to show his anger. Known in the vernacular as FOMO, or &#8220;fear of missing out&#8221;, marketers utilize this inborn trigger to incite pain akin to what the capuchin monkey felt in de Waals cage.</p>
<p>Marketers tasked with increasing consumption of their company&#8217;s products have a difficult job; they are often charged with <a href="http://www.nirandfar.com/2012/03/how-to-manufacture-desire.html" target="_blank">manufacturing desire</a>. To do that, they need to find the customer&#8217;s problem, their pain, in order to alleviate it. Without the biological basis spurring our desire, there would be no sales. So marketers must at least accentuate, if not induce, a level of discomfort to make us crave their wares.</p>
<p>Like in the undergraduates in Chellappan&#8217;s study exhibiting signs of depression, we all seek to escape feeling bad. The products and services that provide immediate relief are those we come to depend upon most.</p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/87656741@N07/8219630837/" target="_blank">Orofacial</a></em></p>
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		<title>Our More Addictive World</title>
		<link>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/04/our-more-addictive-world.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/04/our-more-addictive-world.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Apr 2013 19:05:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nir Eyal</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[What's next?]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[engagement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Habits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[innovation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nirandfar.com/?p=949</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Nir’s Note: A few weeks ago, I wrote a brief post summarizing some thoughts for a potential book chapter. I asked my readers for help and you delivered! The comments were fantastic and I received several insightful emails. Therefore, I&#8217;ve decided to continue with the experiment with the article below. This week&#8217;s post is much shorter and less ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em><strong>Nir’s Note:</strong> A few weeks ago, I wrote a <a href="http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/04/why-business-is-addicted-to-habits.html">brief post </a>summarizing some thoughts for a potential book chapter. I asked my readers for help and you delivered! The comments were fantastic and I received several insightful emails. Therefore, I&#8217;ve decided to continue with the experiment with the article below. This week&#8217;s post is much shorter and less developed than my previous essays and is intended to solicit more of your thoughts and feedback for a potential book chapter. Give it a quick read and tell me what you think. </em>—</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/04/our-more-addictive-world.html"><img class="alignright  wp-image-950" alt="kids on tech" src="http://www.nirandfar.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/shutterstock_93771490-300x197.jpg" width="300" height="197" /></a>The world has become harder to resist. Products are getting better at giving people what they want and &#8211; for the most part &#8211; that has been good thing. Yet, the historical trend-line shows products are also becoming more habit-forming.</p>
<p>All products alleviate customers’ pain. Even products used to gain pleasure must first generate desire, a unique form of discomfort, which the customer will pay to satiate.</p>
<h3>Manufacturing Desire</h3>
<p>The engine driving the evolution of marketing and advertising for the past 125 years has been the increasing speed with which companies adapt products to better meet customer needs.</p>
<p><strong>The Age of Scarcity (prehistory &#8211; 1930s):</strong>  For the majority of human history, the basic necessities of life were expensive and rare. Human populations growth was mediated by the limitation of resources. Keynes formulation of Say&#8217;s law[1] was that “supply creates its own demand&#8221; and in a time of scarcity, goods sold quickly to those who could afford them. Though commercial communication traces back thousands of years, the term “marketing” only made its debut in 1884. Prior to the industrial revolution, products attracted consumers mostly by being available. The limited supply meant high prices and only the well-off had any discretionary spending power.</p>
<p><strong>The Age of Capacity &#8211; (1930’s &#8211; 2000):</strong>  Starting just before the Great Depression, manufacturing production began exceeding demand. This was a massive problem for companies who feared making goods no one would buy. Industry called upon men like Edward Bernays, Sigmund Freud’s nephew, to create demand through “public relations,” a term he coined as a substitute for the word propaganda, which had negative connotations after its use by the Germans in WWII.</p>
<p>Bernays spawned the rise of modern Madison Avenue advertising through mass communication channels like radio. Copying Bernays’ successful tactics, companies sought to identify and connect consumer’s hidden psychological needs to commodity goods like tobacco, soap, and cereal. During the golden age of branding, companies found they could create demand and increase consumption by giving their goods unique identities and for the first time, create associations in the consumer’s mind. Though their product remained largely unchanged and indistinguishable from one another, companies found altering their packaging, coupled with repetitious messaging, was enough to influence purchasing behaviors.</p>
<p>During the later half of the 20th century, the falling cost of creating new products in smaller batches meant companies could alter goods slightly to appeal to previously underserved niches. Marketers also learned to segment consumers through various demographic and psychographic characteristics, with various degrees of success and scientific rigor. The focus group helped brands build new offerings to satisfy what consumers could tell them they wanted.</p>
<p><strong>The Age of Contingency &#8211; (2000 &#8211; present):</strong>  Prior to the widespread use of the Internet, marketing had been dominated by products, which changed relatively little. Companies generally repackaged and rebranded products as “line extensions” of the main brand. However, with the explosion of interactive technologies, companies could tailor products to each and every user. For the first time, products could alleviate the customer’s pain in a uniquely personalized way.</p>
<h3>Perfect Contingency</h3>
<p>Vast amounts of individualized data, transferred at unprecedented speeds to readily accessible, always-on devices, define the age of how we interact with the products that define our lives. Technology products today adapt to the user, constructing themselves in real-time. For example, no one’s Twitter stream or Facebook timeline is like anyone else’s.</p>
<p>But in the Age of Contingency, it is not only the product that adapts to the user. The user also adapts to the product by forming new behavioral and usage habits.</p>
<p>Two parties, the product and the user, change together towards “perfect contingency,” a state of nearly instantaneous adaptation to one another. The more the user habituates to using the product, the more useful and pleasurable the product becomes. This is why the world is becoming a more addictive place.</p>
<p><em><strong>Nir’s Note:</strong> Let me know what you think in the comments section below or send me an email. Do you have any supporting stories to share? Do you know of any relevant studies or examples? Read any good books on the topic? <em>Please let me know. </em></em></p>
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		<title>The Future is Driven by Interface Changes</title>
		<link>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/04/driven-by-interface-changes.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/04/driven-by-interface-changes.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Apr 2013 14:38:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nir Eyal</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[What's next?]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interface]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nirandfar.com/?p=941</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Nir’s Note: In this guest post Ryan Hoover takes a look at how interface changes drive innovation. Ryan blogs at ryanhoover.me and you can follow him on Twitter at rrhoover. What do motorized vehicles, broadband internet, and smartphones have in common? These technologies all introduced new forms of user interface, transforming its user’s daily lives ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em><strong>Nir’s Note:</strong> In this guest post Ryan Hoover takes a look at how interface changes drive innovation. Ryan blogs at <a href="http://www.ryanhoover.me">ryanhoover.me</a> and you can follow him on Twitter at <a href="http://twitter.com/rrhoover">rrhoover</a>.</em></p>
<p><a href="http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/04/driven-by-interface-changes.html "><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-947" alt="image" src="http://www.nirandfar.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/image-300x200.png" width="300" height="200" /></a>What do motorized vehicles, broadband internet, and smartphones have in common? These technologies all introduced new forms of user interface, transforming its user’s daily lives and behaviors.</p>
<p>I’ve been studying Nir Eyal’s work and recently read his article on the power of <a href="http://www.nirandfar.com/2012/06/the-next-secrets-of-the-web.html" target="_blank">interface changes</a>. As stated in his post, interface changes have the potential to radically change user behavior, disrupt incumbents, and enable new opportunities only imagined in film and sci-fi novels.</p>
<p>If you’re building a new startup or operating an existing business, look out for interface changes. Interface changes have the power to catapult your startup to success or kill it on arrival.</p>
<p>So if interface changes are such a big deal, what opportunities or threats can we anticipate? Here are a few examples:</p>
<p><b>Wearable Computing</b> - smart watches (e.g. Pebble, Apple’s rumored “iWatch”), Google Glass, <a href="https://getmyo.com/" target="_blank">Myo</a>, and other wearable technologies will enable new interactions and become <a href="http://ryanhoover.me/post/43358144837/technology-addiction-the-motivation-bar-is-falling" target="_blank">strong drivers of habit-formation</a> as our ability to interact with technology increases.</p>
<p><b>Quantified Self</b> - Nike Fuelband, Fitbit, Jawbone Up, and other biometric monitoring devices have seen traction with early adopters. I anticipate greater adoption as new use cases arise as this technology increases in fidelity and connectedness.</p>
<p><b>Connected Vehicles</b> - Ford, a company founded more than a century ago, is innovating with its Sync technology. Their internet connected platform brings apps to the driving experience. Skitcher and Pandora have already integrated to take advantage of this new interface.</p>
<p><b>Fast, Ubiquitous, Uncapped Internet</b> - this has already started taking shape with LTE, enabling higher-fidelity media to be consumed and shared on the go (e.g. Vine, HBO Go). Faster speeds and unmetered bandwidth may also (finally) make cloud gaming a reality through PS4’s Cloud Gaming service, OnLive, or other competing technologies.</p>
<p><b>Microtransactions</b> - microtransactions and free-to-play model have revolutionized the gaming industry, <a href="http://techcrunch.com/2013/03/28/in-app-purchase-revenue-hits-record-high-accounts-for-76-of-u-s-iphone-app-revenue-90-in-asian-markets/" target="_blank">disrupting traditional </a>game studios. Frictionless payments will continue to spread into other verticals and platforms such as console gaming (e.g. Xbox, PS4, WiiU), TV’s (e.g. Google TV, Apple TV, Samsung), labor services (e.g. Taskrabbit, Exec), and others.</p>
<p><b>Ambient Apps</b> - Highlight, Circle, and Google Now monitor user behavior and <a href="http://scobleizer.com/2012/07/17/the-coming-automatic-freaky-contextual-world-and-why-were-writing-a-book-about-it/" target="_blank">context</a>, surfacing relevant information at just the right time. To a large extent, the interface becomes invisible as these services <i>push</i> to the user rather than <i>pull</i> information from the user as with traditional interfaces.</p>
<p><b>And…</b> - self-driving cars, affordable virtual reality (<a href="http://www.oculusvr.com/" target="_blank">Oculus Rift</a>), alternative currencies (<a href="http://bitcoin.org/en/" target="_blank">BitCoins</a>), lucid dreaming (<a href="http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/bitbangerlabs/remee-the-rem-enhancing-lucid-dreaming-mask/posts" target="_blank">Remee</a>), burger making robots (<a href="http://momentummachines.com/" target="_blank">Momentum Machines</a>), and many more interfaces changes are in our future.</p>
<p>Not all these interfaces will succeed and even those that do will often be dismissed as a <a href="http://cdixon.org/2010/01/03/the-next-big-thing-will-start-out-looking-like-a-toy/" target="_blank">toy</a> in the beginning.</p>
<p>What new interfaces do you see shaping the future?</p>
<p><em>NOTE: This guest post was written by Ryan Hoover</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Why Business is Addicted to Habits</title>
		<link>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/04/why-business-is-addicted-to-habits.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/04/why-business-is-addicted-to-habits.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Apr 2013 14:52:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nir Eyal</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Users]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Habits]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hooks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[retention]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nirandfar.com/?p=943</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Nir&#8217;s Note: This post is a little different from my normal writing. For one, its much shorter. You&#8217;ll notice I provide fewer citations and the ideas are less developed than my previous essays. This is intentional and I need your help. I&#8217;m considering writing a chapter on this topic in a forthcoming book but wanted ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em><strong>Nir&#8217;s Note:</strong> This post is a little different from my normal writing. For one, its much shorter. You&#8217;ll notice I provide fewer citations and the ideas are less developed than my previous essays. This is intentional and I need your help. I&#8217;m considering writing a chapter on this topic in a forthcoming book but wanted to test the ideas with my most loyal readers first. Give it a quick read and tell me what you think. </em>&#8212;</p>
<p><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-944" alt="122822729_30044f0418" src="http://www.nirandfar.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/122822729_30044f0418-300x260.jpg" width="300" height="260" /><strong>H</strong>abits are good for business. In fact, many industries could not survive without them. The incentive systems and business models of the companies that make habit-forming products require someone gets hooked. Without consumer habits, these enterprises would go bust.</p>
<p>While most of us think of cigarettes or gambling as habit-forming products, the fact is, a much wider swath of industries rely on consumer’s using their products without thought or deliberation.</p>
<p>These companies have no secret agenda or nefarious ambitions. They are in business to give people what they want, even if at times, what the consumer wants isn’t necessarily good for them.</p>
<p><span style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">But like every other company, habit-forming businesses are run by well-intentioned people. Hard-working folks with families and dreams of their own. So how then can these two realities coexist? How can companies seek to hook their customers, while also being run by decent people who have just as visceral of an aversion to manipulation as the rest of us?</span></p>
<h3>The Habit Business</h3>
<p>The answer lies in the business imperative. An enterprises’ worth is the sum of the future profits it will generate. MBAs are taught to calculate the value of an enterprise this way and it is the benchmark investors use to determine the fair price of a company’s shares.</p>
<p>CEOs and their management teams are evaluated by their ability to increase the value of their stock. Their job is to implement strategies to grow future cash flow by some combination of increasing revenues and decreasing expenses.</p>
<p><span style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">Creating consumer habits is an effective way to drive share price by increasing what companies call “customer lifetime value.” CLTV is the amount of money made from a customer before they switch to a competitor, stop using the product, or die.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">Some products have a very high CLTV. Credit card customers for example, tend to stay loyal for a very long time and are worth a bundle.</span></p>
<h3>Someone Must Get Hooked</h3>
<p>Acquiring customers is expensive and time consuming. Ensuring customers are habituated to using a product decreases these expenses, thereby increasing enterprise value.</p>
<p><span style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">It’s worth noting that a surprising number of businesses follow a negative binomial distribution, also known as a Pareto concentration. Typically thought of as the 80/20 rule, the phenomenon occurs wherever a few buyers account for the vast majority of revenue. However, at times that split can be much more skewed than one might think.</span></p>
<p>While for most consumer goods, the concentration tends to be 60/20, for online gaming companies like <a href="http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?filingid=9110881&amp;tabindex=2&amp;type=html" target="_blank">Zynga</a>, 100% of the revenue comes from just 2% of players.</p>
<p>In most consumer-facing businesses the Pareto Law applies. These customers are obviously very important to the company because without them, the enterprise could not survive, their profit margins simply would not allow it.</p>
<p>The combination of a business imperative to drive shareholder value by increasing CLTV along with the identification of the most loyal customers, means companies spend significant resources competing for a small set of “heavy users.” Companies are therefore highly motivated to hook customers &#8211; and keep them using their products for as long as possible.</p>
<p><em><strong>Nir&#8217;s Note:</strong> Let me know what you think in the comments section below or send me an email. Do you have any supporting stories to share? Do you know of any relevant studies or examples? Read any good books on the topic? <em>Please let me know. </em></em></p>
<p><em>Photo Credit: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/71233304@N00/122822729/">som3rsault</a> via <a href="http://compfight.com">Compfight</a> <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/2.0/">cc</a></em></p>
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		<title>Viral Loops Or Viral &#8216;Oops&#8217;?</title>
		<link>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/04/viral-loops-or-viral-oops.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/04/viral-loops-or-viral-oops.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Apr 2013 14:07:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nir Eyal</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Users]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[engagement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[growth hacker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[retention]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[virality]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nirandfar.com/?p=938</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Recently, MessageMe announced it had grown to 1 million users in a little over a week&#8217;s time. The revelation captured the attention of envious app makers throughout Silicon Valley, all of whom are searching for the secrets of customer acquisition like it&#8217;s the fountain of youth. &#8220;Growth hacking&#8221; has become the latest buzzword, as investors like Paul ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/04/viral-loops-or-viral-oops.html"><img class="alignright  wp-image-939" alt="1458972393_166f2d7ea7" src="http://www.nirandfar.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/1458972393_166f2d7ea7-300x199.jpg" width="300" height="199" /></a>Recently, MessageMe <a href="http://blog.messageme.com/post/45752247883/announcing-our-seed-investors" target="_blank">announced</a> it had grown to 1 million users in a little over a week&#8217;s time. The revelation captured the attention of envious app makers throughout Silicon Valley, all of whom are searching for the secrets of customer acquisition like it&#8217;s the fountain of youth. &#8220;Growth hacking&#8221; has become the latest buzzword, as investors like Paul Graham profess it&#8217;s functionally <a href="http://www.paulgraham.com/growth.html" target="_blank">that matters</a>.</p>
<p>Clearly, everyone wants growth. To someone creating a new technology, nothing feels better than people actually using what you&#8217;ve built and telling their friends. Growth feels validating. It tells everyone the company is doing things right. At least that&#8217;s what we want to believe.</p>
<h3>Good Growth, Bad Growth</h3>
<p>Sometimes viral loops drive growth, because the product is truly awesome, while in other cases growth occurs for, well, different reasons. As an example of good growth, it&#8217;s hard to top PayPal&#8217;s viral success in the late 90s. PayPal knew that once users started sending money to each other, mostly for stuff bought on eBay, they would infect one another. The allure that someone just &#8220;sent you money&#8221; was a huge incentive to register.</p>
<p>PayPal nailed virality. Both sides of the transaction benefited from utilizing the platform and a classic network-effects business was born. In order for users to get what they wanted, they had to open an account and the product spread because it was useful and viral.</p>
<p>However, sometimes viral loops are less about the customer’s interests and more about short-term greed. When the product maker intentionally tricks users into inviting friends or blasting social networks, they may see growth, but it comes at the expense of goodwill and trust. When people discover they&#8217;ve been tricked, they vent their hatred and stop using the product. Unfortunately, we&#8217;ve all encountered the ways companies drive growth in deceptive ways known as &#8220;<a href="http://darkpatterns.org/" target="_blank">dark patterns</a>.&#8221;</p>
<h3>Viral Oops</h3>
<p>Good and bad growth is relatively easy to identify. What is harder to decipher is the gray zone in between. A &#8220;viral oops&#8221; occurs when users unintentionally invite others, but when they look back on what happened, they blame themselves, not the app.</p>
<p>When MessageMe pre-selects everyone in my contact list as a default, I&#8217;m likely to think that only those who are un-checked will be invited. However, the opposite is true. With two taps, my list of hundreds of contacts gets swamped with a notification email personalized from my email account.</p>
<p><img alt="messageme selected all" src="http://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/messageme-selected-all.png?w=207" width="207" height="300" /><img alt="MessageMe invite" src="http://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/messageme-invite.png?w=204" width="204" height="300" /></p>
<p>Could users really make such a mistake? After all, the send button is clearly labeled with the number of people who will be invited. I am also well aware of the convention that a check mark means the contact is selected and not the other way around.</p>
<p>However, say I was not in UX businesses? What if I were a tech novice living outside our little Silicon Valley bubble? What if I were slightly far-sighted? Or perhaps if English were not my first language (it isn&#8217;t)? Or maybe if I were attempting to make a quick decision while outdoors and couldn&#8217;t clearly see my dim screen? In any one of these scenarios, I could have easily triggered a viral oops.</p>
<p>The surprising math of viral growth reveals it doesn&#8217;t take many users to make this kind of mistake. Only 5 percent of users screwing up can get an app to a million downloads in two weeks, assuming the average user has 200 people in their contact list. The assumptions are for illustrative purposes (see note at bottom) but the point here is to show how powerful exponential growth can be, whether or not it is intentional.</p>
<h3>Who Really Gets Tricked?</h3>
<p>Admittedly, a careful review of the interface would reveal the user&#8217;s mistake. It&#8217;s hard to fault MessageMe. Though my requests for an interview were not returned, I assume their intent was not to trick anyone.</p>
<p>However, the example illustrates what makes the viral oops so troublesome. It is impossible to look into the minds of customers while they use an app. For all I know, MessageMe users intend to send the app to every single one of their contacts. But how would the app maker know if it was done in error? They wouldn’t.</p>
<h3>A viral oops not only deceives the user, it fools the developer.</h3>
<p>Unlike an intentionally deceptive technique, where the user gets angry and stops using the product or uninstalls the app, with a viral oops, users blame themselves. They’ll most likely keep the app and move on with life. With no metric indicating the user’s unintended mistake, the app maker is none the wiser.</p>
<p>A viral oops not only deceives the user, it fools the developer. There is no way to know if the invite was sent in error. Without an understanding of why users share the app, developers are liable to gloss over significant shortcomings that must be addressed for the app to achieve long-term success. Given how easy it is for us fallible humans to believe convenient truths, it is too enticing to interpret growth as validation instead of a mirage.</p>
<p>MessageMe just happens to be the latest hyper-growth app making headlines; I could have picked any number of other cases. In researching this article, I discovered multiple examples of the viral oops in companies large and small, and I’m sure the comments section will uncover others.</p>
<p>Developers should make sure they know <i>why</i> people are sending invitations to others and not be guided by growth for its own sake. App makers would be wise to be particularly careful in encouraging people to invite others before users really know how the app works. For example, prompting invites at first login is a remarkably common and potentially specious practice.</p>
<p>For creative people working on exciting new technologies, growth feels great. But we should be cautious of using techniques that have a high likelihood of being viral oops instead of viral loops.</p>
<p>&#8211;</p>
<p><i>Note: The virality math assumes a starting base of 1,000 users and a daily cycle time of 1 with a 10% invitation acceptance rate.</i></p>
<p><i>Thanks to <a href="https://twitter.com/JulesMaltz" target="_blank">Jules Maltz</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/maxogles" target="_blank">Max Ogles</a> for reading previous versions of this essay.</i></p>
<p>Photo Credit: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/93587218@N00/1458972393/" target="_blank">Mel B</a></p>
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		<title>Making a Marketplace</title>
		<link>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/03/making-a-marketplace.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/03/making-a-marketplace.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Mar 2013 02:41:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nir Eyal</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Users]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[innovation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[network effect]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nirandfar.com/?p=935</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A Checklist for Online Disruption On November 13, 2012, Bill Gurley, a partner at Benchmark Capital, posted a remarkable essay on his blog. In it, he described the, “10 factors to consider when evaluating digital marketplaces.” Given the tremendous value marketplaces create and how hard they are to get right, I found this essay to ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3>A Checklist for Online Disruption</h3>
<p>On November 13, 2012, Bill Gurley, a partner at Benchmark Capital, posted a <a href="http://goo.gl/xoAUw" target="_blank">remarkable essay on his blog</a>. In it, he described the, “10 factors to consider when evaluating digital marketplaces.” Given the tremendous value marketplaces create and how hard they are to get right, I found this essay to be a goldmine of insight.</p>
<p>I teamed-up with my friend and <a href="http://www.platformed.info" target="_blank">blogger</a> Sangeet Paul Choudary, to digest Bill’s post into a more memorable format. The result is this brief checklist we hope will help take some of the luck out of evaluating marketplace businesses.</p>
<p>As Bill wrote, “It is unlikely that you will find a marketplace opportunity that would score ten out of ten with respect to this list.” But according to Bill, the odds of success improve the more of these characteristics the business exhibits.</p>
<p><iframe style="border: 1px solid #CCC; border-width: 1px 1px 0; margin-bottom: 5px;" src="http://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/17762857?rel=0" height="421" width="512" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no"></iframe></p>
<div style="margin-bottom: 5px;">
<p>If you are viewing this post over email and having trouble seeing it, <a href="http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/03/making-a-marketplace.html" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p>
</div>
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		<title>Why Positive Thinking is Bad For You</title>
		<link>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/03/why-positive-thinking-is-bad-for-you.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/03/why-positive-thinking-is-bad-for-you.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Mar 2013 14:46:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nir Eyal</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Self]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Behavior design]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[positive thinking]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nirandfar.com/?p=926</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Oliver Burkeman&#8217;s new book,  The Antidote: Happiness for People Who Can&#8217;t Stand Positive Thinking, challenges many widely-held assumptions. In this video, Burkeman discusses how positivity, goal setting, and visualization, often backfire. Burkeman writes the This Column Will Change Your Life column for the British newspaper, The Guardian, and blogs at oliverburkeman.com.]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oliver Burkeman&#8217;s new book,  <a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Antidote-Happiness-Positive-Thinking/dp/0865479410">The Antidote: Happiness for People Who Can&#8217;t Stand Positive Thinking</a>, challenges many widely-held assumptions. In this video, Burkeman discusses how positivity, goal setting, and visualization, often backfire.</p>
<p><iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/JztuoELnJ_A" height="480" width="640" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Burkeman writes the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/series/thiscolumnwillchangeyourlife" target="_blank"><em>This Column Will Change Your Life</em></a><span style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;"> column for the British newspaper, The Guardian, and blogs at </span><span style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;"><a href="http://www.oliverburkeman.com/">oliverburkeman.com</a>.</span></p>
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		<title>What Killed Turntable.fm?</title>
		<link>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/03/what-killed-turntable-fm.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/03/what-killed-turntable-fm.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Mar 2013 16:55:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nir Eyal</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Users]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[habit zone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Habits]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nirandfar.com/?p=921</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Nir&#8217;s Note: In this guest post, Ryan Hoover, Director of Product at PlayHaven, utilizes my thinking on the &#8220;Habit Zone&#8221; to shed light on where Turntable.fm fell short. Ryan blogs at ryanhoover.me and you can follow him on Twitter at rrhoover. Remember Turntable? When it first launched in May of 2011, the music service seemed to own the internet, ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-922" alt="tumblr_inline_mj26m0Ky5N1qz4rgp" src="http://www.nirandfar.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/tumblr_inline_mj26m0Ky5N1qz4rgp-300x300.jpg" width="300" height="300" /><strong>Nir&#8217;s Note:</strong> In this guest post, Ryan Hoover, Director of Product at PlayHaven, utilizes my thinking on the &#8220;Habit Zone&#8221; to shed light on where Turntable.fm fell short. Ryan blogs at <a href="http://ryanhoover.me/" target="_blank">ryanhoover.me</a> and you can follow him on Twitter at <a href="https://twitter.com/rrhoover" target="_blank">rrhoover</a>.</em></p>
<p>Remember <a href="http://turntable.fm/" target="_blank">Turntable</a>? When it first launched in May of 2011, the music service seemed to own the internet, growing from zero to over 420,000 monthly active users (MAU) only two months later [1]. Unfortunately, that growth didn’t last long as many of its early adopters ditched the service. It is now estimated to have only 20 &#8211; 50,000 MAU’s, a fraction of its early peak [2].</p>
<p>As I described nearly two years ago, much of Turntable’s success was due to its well-executed <a href="http://www.quora.com/User-Acquisition/How-has-Turntable-fm-grown-so-rapidly-with-no-marketing" target="_blank">social engagement loop</a>; however, that wasn’t enough. So what went wrong?</p>
<p>Turntable failed to create long-lasting habits [3], leaving it vulnerable to competitors who more quickly became a daily part of users lives. <a href="http://nirandfar.com/" target="_blank">Nir Eyal</a>, a researcher on habit design and blogger at <a href="http://nirandfar.com/" target="_blank">NirAndFar.com</a>, posits that <a href="http://www.nirandfar.com/2012/09/habit-zone.html" target="_blank">habits form</a> when users have a high perceived utility and use a product frequently. The most sticky products are used multiple times a day. How often have you checked your email or Twitter feed today? In other words, users need to value the product and use it often to form lasting habits and enter the “habit zone” as represented by the graph below.</p>
<p>One of the most common complaints about Turntable is its demand for attention. It is both its greatest strength and weakness.</p>
<p>Unlike traditional music services, Turntable is designed for social interaction where users listen to music together in real-time. Everything takes place in a virtual room, filled with head-bobbing avatars and DJ’s carefully curating their playlist. Users express their love or disgust for the music by up or down voting tunes while exchanging quips, debating song selection, and conversing through a chat feed.However, this interactive experience requires additional <em>brain cycles</em> that users often can’t afford.</p>
<p><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-929" alt="tumblr_inline_mj24tuq4H31qz4rgp" src="http://www.nirandfar.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/tumblr_inline_mj24tuq4H31qz4rgp-300x217.png" width="300" height="217" /></p>
<p>Music is largely a background experience, consumed alongside other primary activities such as working, running, or driving. In comparison, services like Spotify and Pandora are easy and far less demanding. Once Turntable’s novelty faded, its users returned to less obtrusive, “lean back” experiences that didn’t interfere with their day-to-day activities.</p>
<p>And that was Turntable’s fatal flaw &#8211; its infrequent usage compared to other competitors [4] due to the additional effort involved in using the service. If we are to assume users value both services equally, those used more frequently become the habit and take dominant position in the user’s mind.</p>
<p><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-928" alt="tumblr_inline_mj252a2n961qz4rgp" src="http://www.nirandfar.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/tumblr_inline_mj252a2n961qz4rgp-300x255.png" width="300" height="255" /></p>
<p>Habit formation is becoming increasingly important as not only a competitive advantage, but a bar for entry. All products, even those creating new markets, are competing against existing habits and habits are hard to change.</p>
<p>Habits, or a lack thereof, killed Turntable.[5]</p>
<p><em>This guest post was written by <a href="http://ryanhoover.me">Ryan Hoover</a></em></p>
<p><em>———</em></p>
<p><em>[1] Turntable initially required Facebook to login and use the service. According to AppData, Turntable’s usage peaked at approximately <a href="http://www.quora.com/Turntable-fm/Has-Turntable-fms-growth-slowed-as-a-result-of-Spotify-and-other-music-services-deeply-integrated-with-Facebook" target="_blank">420K monthly active users in mid-July, 2011</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>[2] <a href="http://www.appdata.com/apps/facebook/127146244018710-turntable" target="_blank">AppData estimates just over 50K MAU’s for the month of February</a>. In comparison, <a href="http://siteanalytics.compete.com/turntable.fm/" target="_blank">Compete estimates 20,375 MAU in January</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>[3] Nir defines a habit as “a behavior that occurs nearly or completely without cognition”.</em></p>
<p><em>[4] It’s no coincidence that Turntable’s gradual decline in mid-2011 was also around the same time as <a href="https://www.spotify.com/us/blog/archives/2011/07/14/hello-america-spotify-here/" target="_blank">Spotify’s U.S. launch</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>[5] I use the word “kill” superfluously. Turntable is an awesome service and I enjoy the occasional jam session but there’s no arguing its decline.</em></p>
<p><em>Image credit: <a href="http://emogo.com/" target="_blank">Emogo</a> and <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/currybet/" target="_blank">currybet</a><br />
</em></p>
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		<title>What You Don&#8217;t Know About Intuition Can Hurt You</title>
		<link>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/03/what-you-dont-know-about-intuition-can-hurt-you.html</link>
		<comments>http://www.nirandfar.com/2013/03/what-you-dont-know-about-intuition-can-hurt-you.html#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Mar 2013 23:47:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Nir Eyal</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Self]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.nirandfar.com/?p=924</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Nir&#8217;s Note: This guest post is by Francesca Gino, an associate professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School and the author of “Sidetracked: Why Our Decisions Get Derailed, and How We Can Stick to the Plan” A few years ago, Joe Marks, then Disney’s vice president of research, visited Tokyo Disneyland and was puzzled by ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em><img class="alignright  wp-image-925" alt="3349893325_986054da20" src="http://www.nirandfar.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/3349893325_986054da20-300x199.jpg" width="300" height="199" /><strong>Nir&#8217;s Note:</strong> This guest post is by Francesca Gino, an associate professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School <span style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">and the author of “</span><a style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;" href="http://www.amazon.com/Sidetracked-Decisions-Derailed-Stick-Plan/dp/1422142698" target="_blank">Sidetracked: Why Our Decisions Get Derailed, and How We Can Stick to the Plan</a><span style="font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px;">”</span></em></p>
<p>A few years ago, Joe Marks, then Disney’s vice president of research, visited Tokyo Disneyland and was puzzled by a particular behavior he observed there. Park visitors were standing in line, often for many hours at a time, outside a shop in the park’s Frontierland. Marks found out that they were waiting to buy an inexpensive (less than $10) leather bracelet on which they could have a name painted or embossed.</p>
<p>Why were the bracelets in such demand? Joe wondered. And why weren’t other stores in the park selling the same bracelets, so that Disney could improve visitors’ experience by reducing their wait time? In Joe’s mind, the company needed to make the popular product more easily available.</p>
<p>As it turned out, Joe’s intuition, though supported by standard economic theory about supply and demand, was wrong. The visitors he observed usually were standing in line with their sweetheart or spouse. The couples’ willingness to patiently wait for the bracelet was a signal of their strong commitment to each other, for according to a Japanese tradition, exchanging leather bracelets is a sign of bonding. It was the very act of waiting for the bracelet that made the product so popular.</p>
<p>All of us have been in the position of trying in vain to make sense of the behavior of a colleague, boss, spouse, or peer. Typically, it is our faulty intuition that leads us off track.</p>
<p>To take another example, my colleagues and I recently conducted a field study of Indian workers at a call center. The managers believed that, to train happy and productive workers, the orientation process should focus on stressing why new employees should be proud to join the organization. But in our research, we tested the senior management’s intuition and uncovered a much more effective approach: giving new employees the opportunity to think about their personal strengths and how they could apply them to their jobs. Workers who were encouraged to do so were more satisfied with their jobs, more productive, and also more likely to stay with the organization than were those who received more traditional, organization-centered training.</p>
<p>Most of us know little about the functioning of our internal organs, such as our hearts and our kidneys, a fact we readily admit. When our bodies don’t function as we expect them to, we invest time and energy in learning more about how they work and trying to improve our health. But contrast, we approach our minds differently. We believe we understand exactly how our minds work. Even after our decisions lead to disappointing outcomes, we do not investigate what went wrong and try to find out how we might improve our thinking.</p>
<p>By recognizing the limitations in the way we make decisions and correcting for them, we can be more successful in both our personal and professional lives. Through this approach, managers and organizations can adopt practices that lead to more successful outcomes. For example, after recognizing that patients often have difficultly remembering to take their medicine regularly, the startup GlowCaps designed a pill bottle with a special cap that sends reminders using wireless signals. And at Bridgestone Tire, company management wanted employees rely on data rather than their potentially biased intuitions when addressing product flaws. So managers taught employees to use two Japanese terms (which are key principles of the Toyota Production System) that served as salient reminders of the importance of investigating the actual product, or “genbutsu,” in the actual place – “genba” – where a problem emerged.</p>
<p>By identifying and accounting for flaws in human intuition, we can all make better decisions for ourselves, and understand the often-puzzling behaviors of our friends, colleagues and peers. In addition, managers can help create better products and services for their customers, and promote more productive environments for their employees. And policy makers can create more effective systems to help all of us stay on track.</p>
<p>Photo Credit: <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/21156120@N06/3349893325/">Diganta Talukdar</a> via <a href="http://compfight.com">Compfight</a> <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/">cc</a></p>
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